Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Clash
45% Chance
Iran's summoning of the UK ambassador remains a formal protest rather than a break in relations. London stands by the police investigation, Tehran denies IRGC involvement, and both sides avoid measures that would endanger embassy operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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