Possible scenario
Supply Relief Emerges
25% Chance
High prices draw out scrap supply, encourage smelter restarts, and increase pressure to resolve mine disruptions. The market remains tight, but traders start pricing a less extreme deficit than implied by the Deutsche Bank rally scenario.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.1%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- FCX-2.7%
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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