Possible scenario
Squeeze Extends Higher
40% Chance
Record-low exchange stocks and tight refined-metal availability keep the market focused on scarcity rather than valuation. Deutsche Bank's 50% rally forecast reinforces bullish positioning by commodity funds, while limited mine and smelter flexibility keeps near-term supply elasticities low.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +2.2%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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