Possible scenario
Sustained Winter Strikes
45% Chance
Russia continues using Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers to target Ukrainian energy, rail, and defense-industrial sites ahead of winter. This is the most likely path because the September and October pattern suggests Moscow is trying to degrade Ukraine’s grid and logistics before colder weather.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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