Possible scenario
Infrastructure Campaign Persists
20% Chance
The Houthis continue targeting Saudi energy, airport, and logistics assets despite UN condemnation. Even if physical damage remains manageable, repeated launches force higher air-defense spending and lift the probability of disruption to Saudi output or exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
- Consumer Services -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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