Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
42% Chance
The Security Council's rare consensus gives Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UN political cover to reopen back-channel talks with the Houthis. Iran faces coordinated pressure from the G7 and Russia/China not to block de-escalation, making a limited pause in attacks the most likely near-term outcome.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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