Possible scenario
Soft Landing Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that lower savings reflect households normalizing cash buffers rather than an abrupt consumer break. Wage growth, slowing inflation in some categories, and still-low unemployment keep spending positive, though more selective.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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