Possible scenario
Consumer Slowdown Deepens
30% Chance
A lower savings rate could mark households running out of room to absorb high prices, rent, insurance, and debt payments. In this scenario, spending slows into late 2026 and analysts cut estimates for discretionary retailers, card lenders, and travel companies.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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