Possible scenario
Supply Shock Escalates
20% Chance
Additional supply disruptions overwhelm the psychological and physical effect of the IEA release. In this path, markets conclude that strategic stocks can buy time but cannot replace sustained refinery output or Russian distillate exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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