Possible scenario
Limited US Strikes
30% Chance
The White House moves from reviewing options to limited strikes on Houthi launch sites, radar, and storage facilities in Yemen. The action is calibrated to deter further attacks on Saudi infrastructure while avoiding direct confrontation with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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