Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
18% Chance
Oman, the UN, and regional intermediaries press for a pause in Houthi attacks after the Riyadh incident, and Washington delays direct action to give talks room. This outcome would remove part of the war-risk premium embedded in crude above $100.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.