Possible scenario
Contained Oil Shock
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia contains physical damage from the Riyadh-area attack and keeps exports moving, while Washington emphasizes air defense, naval protection, and sanctions rather than immediate strikes. Oil retains a geopolitical risk premium, but traders stop pricing a near-term loss of major Saudi supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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