Possible scenario
Prolonged Funding Gap
30% Chance
The funding shortfall proves larger than expected, forcing USDA to delay most disbursements until Congress provides a clean appropriation or replenishes emergency accounts. Farm-state lawmakers criticize the delay, but negotiations compete with broader budget fights.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- DE-1.6%
- AGCO-1.5%
- CF-0.7%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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