Possible scenario
Provision Is Removed
18% Chance
Opposition from crypto firms, retail investors, and some pro-innovation deputies leads to the removal of the article during plenary debate or later bicameral negotiations. The government may still revisit crypto tax reporting separately, but the immediate threat fades.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+0.9%
- CRCL+0.8%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.