Possible scenario
Waiver Meets Friction
25% Chance
Legal and operational constraints limit the effect of the Texas declaration. Retailers, refiners, and fleet operators hesitate to move dyed diesel into taxable on-road channels without clearer federal tax and emissions guidance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- JBHT-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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