Possible scenario
Broader Policy Relief
20% Chance
Washington and Gulf Coast states respond to the diesel spike with coordinated waivers that go beyond Abbott's declaration. The market reads this as a credible effort to reduce distillate scarcity without imposing an export ban.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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