Diplomatic Freeze Continues

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

European governments refuse to discuss Russia’s demand for a return to NATO’s 1997 posture while keeping diplomatic channels open through Washington, NATO and the OSCE. This is the most likely path because Moscow’s proposal is unacceptable to NATO members, but neither side gains from an immediate breakdown in all contacts.

What it moves

Industrials+0.5%
Technology−0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Diplomatic Freeze Continues

Keeping an eye on this scenario?