Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
20% Chance
The Kremlin frames the Yandex outage as an attack on critical civilian digital infrastructure and authorizes retaliation. The response is most likely cyber and electronic-warfare activity against Ukrainian networks, with a smaller chance of spillover warnings involving Western cloud providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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