Possible scenario
Sanctions Weaken Case
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the court finds Trump failed to comply with discovery obligations after canceling the BBC deposition and imposes targeted sanctions. The sanctions would likely narrow evidence, shift costs, or tee up dismissal rather than produce a large immediate financial award.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.