Possible scenario
Case Proceeds
20% Chance
The court may allow Trump to cure the discovery problem if his lawyers provide a credible explanation and a prompt new deposition schedule. This keeps the lawsuit alive, though prior failed media suits suggest the merits remain difficult.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.