Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Hardens
15% Chance
The Kremlin uses the wartime election and mass-drone narrative to justify a tougher military response. This could take the form of intensified missile strikes, expanded security powers, or limited mobilization measures rather than a formal declaration of war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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