Possible scenario
Courtroom Escalation
20% Chance
One or both companies argue that the subpoenas are overbroad, seek privileged safety research, or risk exposing sensitive model and source-code information. A court fight would make the investigation more adversarial and increase uncertainty around near-term AI product rollouts.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Business Services -0.5%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.1%
- AMZN-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.