Possible scenario
Cooperative Compliance
40% Chance
OpenAI and Anthropic comply with the FTC subpoenas, produce safety testing records, board materials, and incident logs, and avoid an immediate courtroom fight. The most likely path is a prolonged but orderly investigation because both companies recently signed an AI safety accord and have incentives to show cooperation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.2%
- AMZN+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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