Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
18% Chance
Iran, its regional partners, Israel and the United States move from maritime harassment into a broader confrontation. The key market risk is no longer incident reporting, but whether Gulf oil exports and U.S. forces in the region become direct targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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