Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Escalation
42% Chance
Iran-linked attacks continue to hit tankers around Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, but the strait remains technically open. UKMTO and commercial operators struggle with reporting gaps, causing rerouting, higher insurance costs and a moderate oil-risk premium rather than a full blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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