Possible scenario
Coalition Naval Response
28% Chance
Washington, London and Gulf partners expand escorts, surveillance and rules of engagement to keep energy flows moving. The market reaction depends on whether the response is viewed as stabilizing protection or the first step toward direct clashes with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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