Possible scenario
Lead Narrows Late
30% Chance
The 11-point party ID advantage proves to be a high-water mark as Republican voters consolidate and undecided independents split more evenly. Democrats remain competitive, but the election returns to a divided-government baseline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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