Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
40% Chance
The party identification shift proves durable through October, reinforced by Trump’s weak approval and Democratic gains on the generic congressional ballot. Democrats become clear favorites to take the House, while the Senate remains more difficult because of the state map.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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