Possible scenario
GAO Oversight Weakens
20% Chance
The administration succeeds in shifting GAO's posture toward a narrower interpretation of impoundment and spending-control disputes. That would matter most for contractors, grant recipients, and agencies exposed to OMB rescissions, though courts would still constrain the policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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