Possible scenario
Contained October Tightness
45% Chance
Beijing enforces the October fuel-export suspension but does not extend it or broaden it into a multi-month ban. Diesel and gasoil markets remain tight, but traders treat the move as a quota-timing issue rather than a durable global supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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