Possible scenario
Limited Strike
20% Chance
U.S. or Israeli intelligence concludes that Iran resumed activity at Pickaxe Mountain, prompting a limited strike intended to disable the site without starting a broader war. This is less likely than deterrence but credible given the prior U.S. strikes and Trump’s explicit warning.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.