Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
23% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press both sides to avoid another strike by creating a narrow inspection or freeze arrangement. This scenario is plausible because both Washington and Tehran have incentives to avoid an uncontrolled regional escalation while preserving leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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