Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Trump's threat deters Tehran from visible activity at Pickaxe Mountain, and Iran avoids giving Washington or Israel a clear trigger for another strike. The most likely near-term outcome is a tense freeze, with Iran preserving assets while testing diplomatic and intelligence boundaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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