Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Escalates
25% Chance
Iran or aligned forces increase pressure on maritime traffic without fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance costs, tanker delays, and naval escort requirements raise the market-implied risk of a physical supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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