Possible scenario
Diplomatic Relief
20% Chance
A diplomatic off-ramp emerges after the oil spike, with Qatar, Oman, or Iraq brokering indirect communication. The market pares the war premium, especially if OPEC producers signal readiness to stabilize supply expectations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.6%
- Consumer Services +2.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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