Possible scenario
Contained Oil Risk
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S.-Iran exchange remains limited, with both sides preserving deterrence while avoiding a direct campaign against oil infrastructure. Crude stays elevated because traders price a persistent geopolitical premium, but physical supply disruption remains limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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