Possible scenario
Hybrid Pressure Expands
25% Chance
Russia avoids an open attack on NATO but increases cyberattacks, sabotage, GPS jamming, and airspace probes against European states supporting Ukraine. This path is plausible because it gives Moscow leverage while staying below the threshold of declared war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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