Possible scenario
Deterrent Rhetoric Holds
45% Chance
Putin's warning is treated in NATO capitals as coercive signaling rather than a near-term plan for direct war. European governments continue military aid and security guarantees for Ukraine while avoiding deployments that Moscow could frame as an attack.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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