Possible scenario
Race Tightens
23% Chance
The early ballot surge proves less Democratic than initially assumed, and Collins narrows the gap with stronger Republican turnout. Georgia remains a Democratic-leaning race, but the Senate-control picture becomes less certain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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