Possible scenario
Collins Comeback
16% Chance
Mike Collins benefits from a late Republican turnout surge, improved margins among independents, or polling error in Ossoff's favor. A GOP win or near-win would increase the chance of Republican Senate control and shift expectations toward lighter regulation and more fossil-fuel-friendly policy.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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