Possible scenario
Threat Walked Back
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the White House treats the comment as leverage rather than a firm operational signal. Trump, the Pentagon, and congressional Republicans have incentives to avoid a pre-election war shock while preserving deterrence against Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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