Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Strike
20% Chance
A direct U.S. strike remains less likely than rhetoric or posturing, but the latest reversal increases the probability that Trump authorizes a bounded operation before the midterms. The most plausible military objective would be to damage nuclear and missile infrastructure without occupying territory or seeking regime change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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