Possible scenario
Coercive Military Posture
25% Chance
The administration may try to convert Trump's ambiguity into pressure through deployments, cyber preparation, and public warnings rather than immediate kinetic action. This preserves escalation leverage while limiting the political and market damage before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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