Possible scenario
Regulators Tighten Controls
28% Chance
Washington and The Hague view the licensing arrangement as a loophole in the chip-control framework. Regulators move to restrict technology transfers that help Chinese firms reproduce advanced-node performance without restricted ASML equipment.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- QCOM-4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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