Possible scenario
Safeguards Defuse Crisis
18% Chance
Riyadh uses the intelligence warning to reassure Washington, Brussels, and the IAEA that its program remains civilian. The outcome is a diplomatic package that expands inspections, relies on imported fuel, and reduces pressure for unilateral Israeli or Iranian countermeasures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Utilities +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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