Possible scenario
Deal Survives Scrutiny
30% Chance
The administration argues that a U.S.-backed Saudi nuclear program is safer than leaving Riyadh to seek Chinese, Pakistani, or Russian help. Congress criticizes the agreement but lacks the votes to block it, leaving the core deal intact with some additional reporting requirements.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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