Possible scenario
Political Confrontation Escalates
20% Chance
The Wells case becomes a proxy fight over Trump's influence on federal law enforcement. Lawmakers and former prosecutors frame the FBI probe request as part of a broader pattern after the 2025 DOJ probes into Trump's enemies.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.