Possible scenario
Limited FBI Review
45% Chance
The FBI responds to Trump's public urging by conducting a narrow review of the Nolan Wells death file rather than launching a full criminal reinvestigation. This is the most likely path because a grand jury already declined charges on September 22, making a federal case procedurally and evidentiary difficult without new facts.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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