Possible scenario
Escorts Stabilize Flows
25% Chance
The U.S. Navy, Gulf states, and commercial insurers agree on a more predictable convoy system that lifts effective capacity through Hormuz. Markets treat this as a near-term de-risking of Gulf energy flows, even if the political conflict remains unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Services +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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