Possible scenario
Congestion Persists
45% Chance
Iran keeps de facto restrictions on Hormuz traffic while avoiding a full shutdown, leaving queues, war-risk premiums, and tanker day rates elevated. Saudi and other Gulf exporters prioritize critical cargoes, but scheduling delays keep crude markets tense.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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